The renewed calls for the restoration of petrol subsidy, in whatever form, require a frank assessment of what Nigeria has gained from the reforms and what would be lost by going back. The debate is not just about pump prices. It is about whether to keep moving public money from consumption to investment, or to return to a system that drained the treasury and distorted the economy.
The cost of the old regime was enormous. In 2022, at a time of falling oil output and weak government revenue, Nigeria spent about $10 billion on fuel subsidies. The World Bank warned then that the money was crowding out spending on education, health, infrastructure and social protection. It was a fiscal burden the country could no longer carry.
According to the Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Dr. Taiwo Oyedele, the reforms have mobilised ₦15.8 trillion in resources for the Federation between June 2023 and December 2025. Of that, roughly ₦5.43 trillion went to the Federal Government, ₦6.52 trillion to states and ₦3.88 trillion to local governments. These are not funds sitting in a separate “savings account.” They represent fiscal space released across the system and made available to all three tiers of government. 
That space has had real effects on the ground. States and local councils have been better able to meet salary and pension obligations and to fund primary healthcare, basic education, roads and other essential services. At the federal level, about ₦6.47 trillion in additional expenditure has gone into strategic infrastructure. Major projects now underway include the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway and the Trans-Sahara Superhighway, alongside investments in housing, agriculture and security.
The reforms have also supported people directly. Over 10 million households have received social transfers. Landmark programmes have been funded, including the Nigerian Education Loan Fund with ₦223.8 billion, the MOFI Real Estate Investment Fund with ₦150 billion, and the Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation with ₦50 billion. Investor confidence has responded. The Nigerian stock market was the world’s best performer in 2026, external reserves reached their highest level in nearly 20 years, and oil production rose above OPEC quota for the first time in years. The country is also expanding domestic refining capacity, a shift that would be jeopardised by a policy reversal.
The Reform Scorecard also highlights harm avoided. Without the changes, petrol scarcity would likely have returned, with black-market prices above ₦3,000 per litre. The legacy Ways and Means debt of about ₦30 trillion in May 2023 could have doubled to ₦60 trillion. The situation of 27 states struggling to pay salaries would have worsened. Adding to the pressure is a second subsidy: electricity, which cost ₦3.14 trillion between June 2023 and December 2025. Reintroducing petrol subsidy on top of that would deliver a double blow to public finances and quickly recreate the distortions, scarcity and arbitrage of 2022.
This frames the choice in stark terms. Do we restore petrol subsidy, or keep student loans and consumer credit for young Nigerians? Do we restore subsidy, or maintain higher allocations to states and local governments? Do we restore subsidy, or continue funding roads, rail, power and security? Do we restore subsidy, or build the fiscal capacity to expand healthcare, education and protection for the most vulnerable? The Organised Private Sector and broader economic community have warned against reversal, arguing that fiscal sustainability and policy stability are essential for investment and jobs.
No one is claiming that all the challenges are solved. The task now is to translate improved fiscal capacity into better services and living standards. But the answer to hardship is not to dismantle the reform. It is to accelerate its benefits. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his administration are focused on that work. Nigeria cannot build tomorrow’s economy by returning to yesterday’s unsustainable subsidy model.
